Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 04/2324Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2033 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 094
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20