Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 15/2008Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/0634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 075
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 074/073/073
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-006/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15