Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 02/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 076
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/40