Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 13/0233Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/2246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 180 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 072
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 072/072/075
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10