Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 10/1727Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 074
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 007/008-012/012-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/45