Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 Jul) and expected to be very low on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 08/0302Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 205 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 073
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 006/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25