Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0509Z from Region 2838 (N24, L=099). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 03/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 091
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20