Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 03/1429Z from Region 2838 (N24W88). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (05 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/0027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 55/35/15
Class X 25/15/05
Proton 25/15/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 094
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 094/092/092
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 008/008-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25