Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/1815Z from Region 2835 (S18W01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 30/2058Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 251 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul). III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 094 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 077 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/012-008/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/25 Minor Storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 45/25/40
