Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/0707Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 23/0817Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 730 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 080
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 082/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10