Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 20/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4546 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 076
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10