Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/0007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 921 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 076
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 014/014-010/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/10
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/35/10