Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15 Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 078
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 078/077/077
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/10/35