Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/0642Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 09/2326Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 073
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10