Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 03/0116Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 03/0628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 076
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10