Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed averaged near 300 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 075
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 014/015-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/25