Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 13/2225Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 May).

III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 071
Predicted 15 May-17 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/45