Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1845Z from Region 2822 (N18E57). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 303 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 076
Predicted 09 May-11 May 076/077/077
90 Day Mean 08 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10