Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 351 km/s at 05/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1804Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 071
Predicted 07 May-09 May 071/072/072
90 Day Mean 06 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20