Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 01/1803Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/1506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 072
Predicted 02 May-04 May 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 01 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 014/015-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/40