Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 01/0521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/2239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 078
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 073/073/071
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20