Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 22/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10083 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 079
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10