Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 20/0510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 500 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 080
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 021/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 016/022-015/020-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 35/30/25