Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 19/0023Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/0915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 074
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 018/024-016/022-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/35/30