Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 396 km/s at 16/2331Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1431Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5873 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 078
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-009/012-018/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/40
Minor Storm 01/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/50/60