Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 11/2203Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2147 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (15 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 077
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 55/30/10