Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 11/0018Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1701 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 078
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 011/012-015/020-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/55/30