Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 08/1403Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1625 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 080
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 080/075/075
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 007/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20