Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/0019Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6727 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 081
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 080/078/075
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 007/010-018/020-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/65/40