Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22370 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 081
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 012/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/10/10