Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/0625Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 072
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-010/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/50