Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 07/2356Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 546 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 074
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 007/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/15