Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 06/1905Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/1804Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/1844Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1263 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Feb, 08 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 073
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 014/016-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/35/25