Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 29/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3847 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (31 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 076
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 075/074/074
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 005/005-007/008-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/40
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/60