Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 27/1156Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3242 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 076
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 076/076/074
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10