Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 24/0037Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 078
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10