Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 23/2035Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 078
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 007/007-007/008-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20