Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 078
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 006/005-007/007-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/25