Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 20/2258Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24

III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 078
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10