Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1754Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 19/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0136Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 078
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 080/085/085
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/014-011/014-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/45/35