Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/1013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 078
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-011/012-013/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/55