Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 13/0405Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 073
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 073/074/075
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15