Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 11/2100Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 11/1347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 11/1329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 073
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15