Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 06/2224Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 075
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25