Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 02/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 080
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 080/078/078
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-007/010-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/60