Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 14/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Dec, 18 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 083
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/10