Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 14/1437Z from Region 2792 (S22E39). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 13/2333Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/1646Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 083
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 083/083/084
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20