Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 10/0219Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/0204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 182 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 082
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 082/083/084
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 010/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/30