Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 09/2001Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 558 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (10 Dec), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 082
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 082/082/084
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 028/040-018/025-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 30/05/01
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/25/10