Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1 at 03/2359Z from Region 2790. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C- class flare on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 03/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 096
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 094/092/088
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10